核武器

Status of World Nuclear Forces

31.03.23 | 4 min read | Text by汉斯·克里斯滕森&Matt Korda&Eliana Reynolds&Kate Kohn

Who owns the world’s nuclear weapons?

Despite progress in reducing nuclear weapon arsenals since the Cold War, the world’s combined inventory of nuclear warheads remains at a very high level: nine countries possessed roughly 12,500 warheads as of early-2023.

Combined, the United States and Russia now possess approximately 89 percent of the world’s total inventory of nuclear weapons, and 86 percent of the stockpiled warheads available for use by the military. Currently, no other nuclear-armed state sees a need for more than a few hundred nuclear weapons for national security, although many of these states are increasing their nuclear stockpiles.

Globally, the overall inventory of nuclear weapons is declining, but the pace of reductions is slowing compared with the past 30 years. Moreover, these reductions are happening only because the United States and Russia are still dismantling previously retired warheads.

In contrast to the overall inventory of nuclear weapons, the number of warheads in global military stockpiles – which comprises warheads assigned to operational forces – is increasing once again.The United States is still reducing its nuclear stockpile slowly. France and Israel have relatively stable inventories. But China, India, North Korea, Pakistan and the United Kingdom, as well as possibly Russia, are all thought to be increasing their stockpiles (see map):

Of the world’s approximate 12,500 nuclear warheads, roughly 9,576 are in the military stockpiles for use by missiles, aircraft, ships and submarines. The remaining warheads have been retired but are still relatively intact and are awaiting dismantlement). Of the 9,576 warheads in the military stockpiles, some 3,804 are deployed with operational forces (on missiles or bomber bases). Of those, approximately 2,000 US, Russian, British and French warheads are onhigh alert, ready for use on short notice (see table):

估计全球核弹头库存,2023年
Hans M. Kristensen, Matt Korda, and Eliana Reynolds, Federation of American Scientists, 2023

The exact number of nuclear weapons in each country’s possession is a closely held national secret, so the estimates presented here come with significant uncertainty. Most nuclear-armed states provide essentially no information about the sizes of their nuclear stockpiles. Yet the degree of secrecy varies considerably from country to country. Between 2010 and 2018, the United States disclosed its total stockpile size, but in 2019 the Trump administrationstopped that practice. In 2020, the Biden administration恢复核透明度– a brief victory for nuclear accountability in a democratic country – but then declined to declassify any US stockpile data for 2021 or 2022. Similarly, in 2021 the United Kingdomannouncedthat it would no longer disclose public figures for its operational stockpile, deployed warhead or deployed missile numbers. Additionally, as of 2023 both the United States and Russia have elected to no longer exchange publicly-available data about their deployed strategic warheads and launchers as mandated by the New START Treaty.

尽管存在这些限制,但是,公开可用的信息,对历史记录的仔细分析以及偶尔的泄漏使得有可能对国家核武器库存的规模和组成进行最佳估计。有关不同核武器国家的核弹头类别的细分,以及有关每个国家武器库的更多细节概述的链接,请参阅此表:

Status of World Nuclear Forces, 2023

How to read this table:“部署的战略弹头”是部署在洲际导弹和重型轰炸机基地上的那些。“部署的非战略弹头”是部署在具有操作短距离输送系统的基地上的那些。“储备/非部署”的弹头是未部署在发射器上而是在存储中的弹头(轰炸机基地的武器被认为已部署)。“军事储备”包括由军事拘留的活跃和不活跃的弹头,并专门用于委托运送车辆。“全部库存”包括军事库存中的弹头以及退休但仍然完好无损的弹头弹头拆除。有关其他指导,请参见下面的尾注(note: as estimates are updated, they may vary from the printed materials below).

ExpandFootnotes

a“军事储备”中的弹头被定义为军事拘留的弹头,并指定军队使用。
bThe “total inventory” counts warheads in the military stockpile as well as retired, but still intact, warheads awaiting dismantlement.
c这个数字高于新开始条约因为该表也可以在部署的轰炸机基地计算轰炸机武器。Detailed overview of Russian forces as of 2022 is here. Numbers have been updated for later changes.
dAll are declared to be in central storage, although some storage sites may be close to bases with operational forces. Many retired non-strategic warheads are thought to be awaiting dismantlement.
eIncludes an estimated 999 strategic warheads and all 1,816 non-strategic warheads.
fIn addition to the 4,489 warheads in the military stockpile, an estimated 1,400 retired warheads are thought to be awaiting dismantlement. Public details are scarce, but we estimate that Russia is dismantling 200-300 retired warheads per year. The future of the Russian stockpile size is debated: US Strategic Command and part of the Intelligence Communityclaim“Russia’s overall nuclear stockpile is likely to grow significantly over the next decade – growth driven primarily by a projected increase in Russia’s non-strategic nuclear weapons.” Others privately disagree. A major uncertainty is how many tactical weapons will be replaced by new nuclear versions versus conventional weapons.See 2022 overview of Russian forces here.
gThis number is higher than the aggregate data released under theNew START databecause this table also counts bomber weapons on bomber bases as deployed.Detailed overview of 2023 U.S. forces is here.
hApproximately 100 B61 bombs are deployed in Europe at six bases in five countries (Belgium, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, and Turkey).
iNon-deployed reserve includes an estimated 1,670 strategic and 100 non-strategic warheads in central storage.
jThe U.S. government宣布2018年3月,其储备包括2017年9月的3,822弹头。此后,Trump administration decided不再解密数字。2021年,拜登管理declassifiedthe number of warheads in the stockpile and the number of dismantled warheads, noting that the stockpile consisted of 3,750 warheads as of September 2020. Since then, additional warheads have been retired for an estimated stockpile of approximately 3,700 warheads.
kIn addition to the roughly 3,700 warheads in the military stockpile and the approximate 1,500 retired warheads awaiting dismantlement, roughly 20,000 plutonium cores (pits) and some 4,000 Canned Assemblies (secondaries) from dismantled warheads are in storage at the Pantex Plant in Texas and Y-12 plant in Tennessee. For a detailed 2023 overview of U.S. forces,看这里.
lWeapons for France’s single aircraft carrier are not deployed on the ship under normal circumstances but could be on short notice. Warhead loadings on some submarines missiles have been reduced to increase targeting flexibility. For a detailed overview of French nuclear forces,看这里).
m中国库存正在增加,2022年美国国防部claimed,到2030年中国的核储备”about 1,000 operational nuclear warheads.” Part of that increase is already well underway and our estimate includes some of it; however, these claims depend on many uncertain factors, including how many missile silos will be built, how many warheads each missile will carry, and assumptions about the future production of fissile materials by China. None of the warheads are thought to be fully deployed but kept in storage under central control. China considers all of its nuclear weapons to be strategic, but the US military calls its medium-and intermediate-range missile non-strategic. Our detailed 2023 overview of Chinese nuclear forces ishere.
n英国核弹头的数量在每个潜艇was lowered from 48 to 40. This lowered the number of “operationally available” warheads from 160 to 120. The plan was to reduce the stockpile to “not more than 180” by the mid-2020s, but the Johnson government于2021年宣布that it would increase the stockpile to “no more than 260 warheads.”Detailed overview of UK nuclear forces here.
o尽管以色列为100-200枚弹头生产了足够的p,但美国情报界的交付平台和估计数量表明,库存可能包括大约90枚弹头。详细的2021概述.
pEstimating the number of Pakistani warheads comes with great uncertainty because neither Pakistan nor western governments provide public information. None of Pakistan’s warheads are thought to be mated with missiles but kept in central storage, most in the southern parts of the country. More warheads are in production.详细的2021概述.
q估计印度弹头的数量存在很大的不确定性,因为印度和西方政府都没有提供公共信息。尽管努力提高准备就绪,但我们估计印度核弹头并不与导弹交配,而是在中央存储中。轰炸机武器可能会在相对较短的通知中使用。更多的弹头正在生产中。详细的2022概述此处.
rAfter six nuclear tests, including two of 10-20 kilotons and one of more than 150 kilotons, we estimate that North Korea might have produced sufficient fissile material for roughly 50-70 warheads. The number of assembled warheads is unknown, but lower. We estimate that North Korea might have approximately 30 assembled warheads for short- and medium-range missiles, although this number is certainly increasing.详细的2022概述此处.
sNumbers may not add up due to rounding and uncertainty about the operational status of the four lesser nuclear weapons states and the uncertainty about the size of the total inventories of three of the five initial nuclear powers.

在历史背景下,自冷战以来,世界上核武器的数量已大幅下降:从1986年的大约70,300峰到估计的12,500山峰,在2023年初。政府官员经常表征由于当前或最近的军备控制协议而导致的这一成就,但实际上,减少的压倒性部分发生在1990年代。有些还将当今的数字与1950年代的数字进行了比较,但这就像比较苹果和橙子一样。当今的部队更有能力。

The pace of reduction has slowed significantly compared with the 1990s and appears to continue only because of dismantlement of retired weapons; the trend is that the military stockpiles (useable nuclear weapons) are increasing again.

Estimated Global Nuclear Warhead Inventories
Hans M. Kristensen, Matt Korda, and Eliana Reynolds, Federation of American Scientists, 2023

核武国家没有计划核武器,而是计划保留大型武器库,以实现无限期的未来。因此,他们与条约对不扩散核武器的客观和精神相抵触。

All continue to modernize their remaining nuclear forces at a significant pace, several are adding new types and/or increasing the role they serve in national strategy and public statements, and all appear committed to retaining nuclear weapons for the indefinite future.

For an overview of global modernization programs, see our contributions to theSIPRI Yearbookand the核武器Ban Monitor. Individual country profiles are available from theFAS核笔记本.

每个国家可用的信息差异很大,从最透明的核武器国家(美国)到最不透明的(以色列)。因此,尽管美国的库存估算是基于“实际”数字,但其他几个核武器国家的估计值高度不确定。

这些核武器估计是由美国科学家联合会的汉斯·克里斯汀森,马特·科尔达和埃里亚娜·雷诺兹制作的。他们的工作是基于分析师托马斯·科克伦(Thomas Cochran),罗伯特·诺里斯(Robert Norris)和威利安·阿金(Willian Arkin)的开创性成就,没有这些公共服务。

这项工作是通过纽约卡内基公司,生命研究所的未来,约翰·D(John D.莫特基金会,植物基金会和个别捐助者。所作的陈述和表达的观点仅仅是作者的责任。