技术与创新

Applying ARPA-I: A Proven Model for Transportation Infrastructure

06.06.23 | 22分钟阅读 | Text byAndy GordonAleksandra SrdanovicCristina Velasquez

Executive Summary

2021年11月,国会通过了基础设施投资和就业法(IIJA), which included $550 billion in new funding for dozens of new programs across the U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT). Alongside historic investments in America’s roads and bridges, the bill created the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Infrastructure (ARPA-I). Building on successful models like the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) and the Advanced Research Program-Energy (ARPA-E), ARPA-I’s mission is to bring the nation’s most innovative technology solutions to bear on our most significant transportation infrastructure challenges.

ARPA-I must navigate America’s uniquely complex infrastructure landscape, characterized by limited federal research and development funding compared to other sectors, public sector ownership and stewardship, and highly fragmented and often overlapping ownership structures that include cities, counties, states, federal agencies, the private sector, and quasi-public agencies. Moreover, the new agency needs to integrate the strong culture, structures, and rigorous ideation process that ARPAs across government have honed since the 1950s. This report is a primer on how ARPA-I, and its stakeholders, can leverage this unique opportunity to drive real, sustainable, and lasting change in America’s transportation infrastructure.

How to Use This Report

这份报告强调了机会ARPA-I总统ents; orients those unfamiliar with the transportation infrastructure sector to the unique challenges it faces; provides a foundational understanding of the ARPA model and its early-stage program design; and empowers experts and stakeholders to get involved in program ideation. However, individual sections can be used as standalone tools depending on the reader’s prior knowledge of and intended involvement with ARPA-I.

An Opportunity for Transportation Infrastructure Innovation

2021年11月,国会通过了基础设施投资和就业法(IIJA) authorizing the U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT) to create the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Infrastructure (ARPA-I), among other new programs. ARPA-I’s mission is to advance U.S. transportation infrastructure by developing innovative science and technology solutions that:

Arpa-i将通过支持研究项目来实现这一目标:

ARPA-I是一长串成功的ARPA的最新成员,它继续在国防,情报,能源和卫生部门提供突破性的创新。美国国防部建立了开拓者Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency(DARPA)1958年,为了响应苏联发射的卫星卫星,以开发和展示高风险,高回报的技术和能力,以确保美国军事技术优势和面对国家安全挑战。多年来,DARPA计划负责取得重大的技术进步,具有防御和国家安全以外的影响,例如互联网的早期阶段,全球定位系统(GPS)的创建以及对与之打击至关重要的mRNA疫苗的开发2019冠状病毒病。

鉴于通过DARPA计划获得的许多成功进步,政府复制了其他关键部门的ARPA模型,从而在国家情报部长办公室内进行了情报高级研究项目活动(IARPA),高级研究项目局 -能源部内的能源,以及最近的卫生与公共服务部内的高级研究项目机构 - 健康(ARPA-H)。

Now, there is the opportunity to bring that same spirit of untethered innovation to solve the most pressing transportation infrastructure challenges of our time. The United States has long faced a variety of transportation infrastructure-related challenges, due in part to low levels of federal research and development (R&D)spendingin this area; the fragmentation of roles across federal, state, and local government; risk-averse procurement practices; and sluggish commercial markets. These challenges include:

The Fiscal Year 2023 Omnibus Appropriations Bill awarded ARPA-I itsinitial appropriation在2023年初Net-Zero Game Changers Initiative。特别是,政府确定了智能移动性,清洁有效的运输系统,下一代基础设施构建,高级电力基础设施和清洁燃料基础设施为“净零游戏改变者”,ARPA-I可以在帮助发展方面发挥作用。

为了使ARPA-I计划发挥其全部潜力,代理商的利益相关者和合作伙伴不仅需要了解如何有效地应用ARPA模型,而且还需要在计划设计中考虑如何在运输基础设施中的独特情况和挑战。

Unique Challenges of the Transportation Infrastructure Landscape

使用ARPA-I推进运输基础设施的突破,需要意识到优先级的最持久挑战以及该行业内部独特的环境集合,如果忽略,则可能会阻碍进步。以下是ARPA-I要考虑的关键挑战和考虑因素的摘要,然后对每个挑战进行了更深入的分析。

Lower Federal R&D Spending in Transportation Infrastructure

Federal R&D expenditures in transportation infrastructure lag behind those in other sectors. This gap is particularly acute because, unlike for some other sectors, federal transportation R&D expenditures often fund studies and systems used to make regulatory decisions rather than technological innovation. The table below compares actual federal R&D spending and sector expenditures for 2019 across defense, healthcare, energy, and transportation as a percentage of each sector’s GDP. The federal government spends orders of magnitude less on transportation than other sectors: energy R&D spending as a percentage of sector GDP is nearly 15 times higher than transportation, while health is 13 times higher and defense is nearly 38 times higher.

代理 ^1 Actual federal R&D spending, 2019 由行业添加的增值和2019年美国GDP的百分比 2019 federal R&D spending as % of sector GDP
Defense 546.9亿美元 $732 billion (3.4%) 7.5%
Health and Human Services $38.51 billion $1,452 billion (6.8%) ^2 2.7%
Energy 182.7亿美元 $607 billion (2.8%) ^3 3.0%
Transportation 11亿美元 6100亿美元(2.9%) ^4 0.2%
扩张Footnotes

1.比较2019年联邦研发支出和部门支出与2020年和2021年的比较。

2. Excludes GDP value-adds relating to Social Assistance

3. Includes GDP value-adds relating to oil and gas extraction, utilities, and petroleum and coal products

4. Excludes GDP value adds relating to Warehousing

Public Sector Dominance Limits Innovation Investment

自1990年以来,美国研发的总投资增加了大约9次。在同一时期的研发投资来源时,私营和公共部门在1982年投资了大约相同数量的研发资金4 times greaterfor the private industry than the government.

While there are problems with the bulk of R&D coming from the private sector, such as innovations to promote long-term public goods being overlooked because of more lucrative market incentives, industries that receive considerable private R&D funding still see significant innovation breakthroughs. For example, the medical industry saw $161.8 billion in private R&D funding in 2020 compared to only $61.5 billion from federal funding. More than 75% of this private industry R&D occurred within the biopharmaceutical sector where corporations have profit incentives to be at the cutting edge of advancements in medicine.

The transportation sector has one robust domain for private R&D investment: vehicle and aircraft equipment manufacturing. In 2018, total private R&D was$52.6 billion。Private sector transportation R&D focuses on individual customers and end users, creating better vehicles, products, and efficiencies. The vast majority of that private sector R&D does not go toward infrastructure because the benefits are largely public rather than private. Put another way, the United States invests more than 50 times the amount of R&D into vehicles than the infrastructure systems upon which those vehicles operate.

Market Fragmentation across Levels of Government

Despite opportunities within the public-dominated transportation infrastructure system, market fragmentation is a persistent obstacle to rapid progress. Each level of government has different actors with different objectives and responsibilities. For instance, at the federal level, USDOT provides national-level guidance, policy, and funding for transportation across aviation, highway, rail, transit, ports, and maritime modes. Meanwhile, the states set goals, develop transportation plans and projects, and manage transportation networks like the interstate highway system. Metropolitan planning organizations take on some of the planning functions at the regional level, and local governments often maintain much of their infrastructure. There are also local individual agencies that operate facilities like airports, ports, or tollways organized at the state, regional, or local level. Programs that can use partnerships to cut across this tapestry of systems are essential to driving impact at scale.

当地机构的访问和能力有限,可以开发跨部门技术。他们可以访问有限的USDOT资金来进行试点技术,因此通常依靠市售技术来增加飞行员成功的可能性。当前过程的一个缺点是USDOT和基础架构所有者 - 操作员(IOOS)在开发创新技术方面发挥了更具被动的作用,而不是仅仅取决于仅部署市场就绪技术。

Multiple Modes, Customers, and Jurisdictions Create Difficulties in Efficiently Allocating R&D Resources

运输基础设施部门是一个多模式的环境许多模式,包括航空,海事,管道,铁路,道路(包括骑自行车和步行)和过境。每种模式都包括要考虑的各种客户和利益相关者。此外,在零散的市场景观中,联邦,州和地方运输部门的特权和授权有时不同,有时甚至是竞争。这种动态在分配研发资源并考虑跨这些不同模式的创新方面造成了困难。

在现有的ARPA中,客户标识并不是“一个尺寸适合所有尺寸”。例如,DARPA的重点是为一个客户提供有效的创新:国防部。对于arpa-e,这还不太清楚。他们的客户从公用事业公司到希望从较低能源成本中受益的房主。ARPA-I将在这两种情况下占据一个空间,了解其最终用户是IOO,在许多情况下在本地或区域层面上部署基础架构的本质。

但是,即使对客户的这种更直接的了解,关注多种模式的系统的缺点是,运输基础设施非常广泛,从自我修复混凝土到交点安全到部署电动移动性等,都占据了一切。更复杂的事情是所有模式的技术和期望的快速发展,以及全新的运输方式的推出。这些发展引起了人们对新技术和能力在现有模态框架中的位置,运输基础设施市场中哪些演员的发展以及最终的“客户”或创新最终用户是谁的疑问。

Having a matrixed understanding of the rapid technological evolution across transportation modes and their potential customers is critical to investing in and building infrastructure for the future, given that transportation infrastructure investments not only alter a region’s movement of people and goods but also fundamentally impact its development. ARPA-I is poised to shape learnings across and in partnership with USDOT’s modes and various offices to ensure the development and refinement of underlying technologies and approaches that serve the needs of the entire transportation system and users across all modes.

ARPA成功的核心原则

使用ARPA模型成功来自展示新的创新能力,建立一个人社区(“生态系统”)来推动进步,并得到关键决策者的支持。然而,只有在其计划导演(PDS),研究员,利益相关者和其他合作伙伴了解创造有利于刺激突破性创新的文化时,其独特的结构和固有的灵活性才能了解其计划主管(PDS),研究员,利益相关者和其他合作伙伴,才能成功。从结构和文化的角度来看,ARPA模型与联邦政府中的任何其他机构模式都不同,包括所有现有的研发机构。合作伙伴和其他利益相关者应接受ARPA的独特特征。

文化组成部分

ARPAs should take risks.

An ARPA portfolio may be the closest thing to a venture capital portfolio in the federal government. They have a mandate to take big swings so should not be limited to projects that seem like safe bets. ARPAs will take on many projects throughout their existence, so they should balance quick wins with longer-term bets while embracing failure as a natural part of the process.

ARPAs should constantly evaluate and pivot when necessary.

ARPA需要在决策过程中无情,因为它具有在不限制初始计划或路线图的情况下进行操纵和转移的能力。例如,围绕更多新生技术的项目可能需要更多的耐心,但是如果评估表明他们没有实现预期的结果或里程碑,则PDS不必害怕终止这些项目并专注于其他新想法。

ARPAs should stay above the political fray.

ARPA可以考虑为创新提供资金的新的和非传统的方式,因此不应陷入其更广泛的代理中的趋势。随着船上的不同管理部门,新办公室建立,党派优先级可能会发生变化,但是ARPA应限制外部对其日常运营的影响。

ARPA团队成员应接受企业家的心态。

PDS,合作伙伴和其他团队成员需要接受成功所需的创造自由,并像企业家一样为其计划而运营。有价值的特征包括采取行动,灵活性,有远见的领导力,自我激励和坚韧的倾向。

ARPA team members must move quickly and nimbly.

Trying to plan out the agency’s path for the next two years, five years, 10 years, or beyond is a futile effort and can be detrimental to progress. ARPAs require ultimate flexibility from day to day and year to year. Compared to other federal initiatives, ARPAs are far less bureaucratic by design, and forcing unnecessary planning and bureaucracy on the agency will slow progress.

合作必须编织成代理机构的结构。

随着ARPA工作的迅速转移和企业家的性质,联邦工作人员,承包商和其他代理合作伙伴需要互相依靠彼此来支持和援助,以抓住机遇,并继续随着计划的成熟和转变而继续发展。

Outcomes matter more than following a process.

ARPA PDs must be free to explore potential program and project ideas without any predetermination. The agency should support them in pursuing big and unconventional ideas unrestricted by a particular process. While there is a process to turn their most unconventional and groundbreaking ideas into funded and functional projects, transformational ideas are more important than the process itself during idea generation.

ARPA团队成员欢迎反馈。

Things move quickly in an ARPA, and decisions must match that pace, so individuals such as fellows and PDs must work together to offer as much feedback as possible. Constructive pushback helps avoid blind alleys and thus makes programs stronger.

结构成分

The ARPA Director sets the vision.

The Director’s vision helps attract the right talent and appropriate levels of ambition and focus areas while garnering support from key decision-makers and luminaries. This vision will dictate the types and qualities of PDs an ARPA will attract to execute within that vision.

PD可以制造或破坏ARPA并设定技术方向。

Because the power of the agency lies within its people, ARPAs are typically flat organizations. An ARPA should seek to hire the best and most visionary thinkers and builders as PDs, enable them to determine and design good programs, and execute with limited hierarchical disruption. During this process, PDs should engage with decision-makers in the early stages of the program design to understand the needs and realities of implementers.

Contracting helps achieve goals.

ARPA模型允许PDS与大学,公司,非营利组织,组织和其他政府领域联系起来,以合同必要的研发。这使该计划可以与个人建立关系,而无需雇用或提供设施或研究实验室。

互动改善了结果。

从过去的ARPA版本中尝试远程和混合环境,很明显,在ARPA的各种角色和程序中进行有机碰撞对于实现更好的结果很重要。例如,PDS和技术顾问之间正在进行的面对面互动对创意,技术项目和计划管理至关重要。

职员transitions must be well facilitated to retain institutional knowledge.

ARPA最独特的结构特征之一是其经常营业额。PD和研究员是限制的,随着市场和行业的发展,ARPA旨在每隔几年移交每几年的关键职位,因此,进行周到的过渡过程至关重要,包括考虑系统工程和技术援助的作用(SETA)承包商填补知识空白,培养活跃的校友网络以及交错的招聘周期,以使大量的PD和研究员并非一次都在退出他们的服务。

Scaling should be built into the structure.

不能假设,如果一个项目成功,私营部门将采用该技术并帮助IT扩展。取而代之的是,ARPA应以专门用于资助项目的计划形式创建自己的桥梁,以在测试环境中证明其用于现实世界应用的技术。

技术到市场顾问扮演着关键的角色。

Similarly to the dedicated funding for scaling described above, technology-to-market advisors are responsible for thinking about how projects make it to the real world. They should work hand in hand with PDs even in the early stages of program development to provide perspectives on how projects might commercialize and become market-ready. Without this focus, technologies run the risk of dying on the vine—succeeding technically, but failing commercially.

A Primer on ARPA Ideation

通过ARPA-I解决运输基础设施方面的巨大挑战需要了解其程序设计的独特之处。这个过程始于考虑值得解决的问题,这是使它成为一个成熟问题的机会,一个对ARPA计划适合解决该问题的高级想法以及一旦解决了该问题的可视化,对未来的可视化。早期计划的这个过程需要改变一个人的思想,以寻找适合ARPA模型的创新计划的想法,以适当的野心级别和适合ARPA结构和目标。这也是一个固有的迭代过程,因此在创建一个“线框”时,概述了问题,机会,计划目标和未来的视野似乎很简单,但可能需要几个月的精炼。

Common Challenges

No clear diagnosis of the problem

Many challenges facing our transportation infrastructure system are not defined by a single problem; rather, they are a conglomeration of issues that simultaneously need addressing. An effective program will not only isolate a single problem to tackle, but it will approach it at a level where something can be done to solve it through root cause analysis.

Thinking small and narrow

另一方面,可以将考虑ARPA程序的问题隔离到解决方案不会推动变革变化的地步。在这种情况下,狭窄的问题不会迎合一系列适合ARPA的进步和互补项目。

机会不正确:

在进行早期计划设计时,有时将机会框起来是“解决问题的机会”。相反,机会应该反映出已经存在的有前途的方法,技术或方法,但它将通过高级研究机构计划从资金和资源中受益。

Approaching solutions solely from a regulatory or policy angle

虽然法规和政策变化是应对运输基础设施挑战的必要和重要组成部分,但通过这种镜头来解决问题并不是ARPA的任务。乐动冠军ARPA专注于支持开发新方法,技术,能力和方法的突破性创新。此外,解决问题的法规方法通常可能会受到冗长的政策过程。

No explicit ARPA role

An ARPA should pursue opportunities to solve problems where, without its intervention, breakthroughs may not happen within a reasonable timeframe. If the public or private sector already has significant interest in solving a problem, and they are well on their way to developing a transformational solution in a few years or less, then ARPA funding and support might provide a higher value-add elsewhere.

Lack of throughline

ARPA程序考虑确定的问题tion should be present as themes throughout the opportunities chosen to solve them as well as how programs are ultimately structured. Otherwise, a program may lack a targeted approach to solving a particular challenge.

忘记最终用户

Human-centered design should be at the heart of how ARPA programs are scoped, especially when considering the scale at which designers need to think about how solving a problem will provide transformational change for everyday users.

面向解决方案

Research programs should not be built with predetermined solutions in mind; they should be oriented around a specific problem to ensure that any solutions put forward are targeted and effective.

对该程序的直接结果不现实

计划目标不应简单地重新弥补机会,也不应跳到该计划完成课程后多年的世界。他们应该将程序的战术要素分开,以及最终将驱动的影响。设计师应将他们的计划视为商业化和采用的长期弧线的一个关键步骤,对谁需要采取行动以及使计划目标成为现实的坚定意识。

Keeping these common mistakes in mind throughout the design process ensures that programs are properly scoped, appropriately ambitious, and in line with the agency’s goals. With these guideposts in mind, idea generators should begin their program design in the form of a wireframe.

线框开发

The first phase in ARPA program development is creating a program wireframe, which is an outline of a potential program that captures key components for consideration to assess the program’s fit and potential impact. The template below shows the components characteristic of a program wireframe.

Wireframe template

创建一个有血有肉的线框图,程序directors work backward by first envisioning a future state that would be truly transformational for society and across sectors if it were to be realized. Then, they identify a clearly-articulated problem that needs solving and is hindering progress toward this transformational future state. During this process, PDs need to conduct extensive root cause analysis to consider whether the problem they’ve identified is exacerbated by policy, regulatory, or environmental complications—as opposed to those that technology can already solve. This will inform whether a problem is something that ARPA-I has the opportunity to impact fundamentally.

Next, program directors identify a promising opportunity—such as a method, approach, or technology—that, if developed, scaled, and implemented, would solve the problem they articulated and help achieve their proposed future state. When considering a promising opportunity, PDs must assess whether it front-runs other potential technologies that would also need developing to support it and whether it is feasible to achieve concrete results within three to five years and with an average program budget. Additionally, it is useful to think about whether an opportunity considered for program development is part of a larger cohort of potential programs that lie within an ARPA-I focus area that could all be run in parallel.

Most importantly, before diving into how to solve the problem, PDs need to articulate what has prevented this opportunity from already being solved, scaled, and implemented, and what explicit role or need there is for a federal R&D agency to step in and lead the development of technologies, methods, or approaches to incentivize private sector deployment and scaling. For example, if the private sector is already incentivized to, and capable of, taking the lead on developing a particular technology and it will achieve market readiness within a few years, then there is less justification for an ARPA intervention in that particular case. On the other hand, the prescribed solution to the identified problem may be so nascent that what is needed is more early-stage foundational R&D, in which case an ARPA program would not be a good fit. This area should be reserved as the domain of more fundamental science-based federal R&D agencies and offices.

DARPA投资在mRNA中进行了说明。尽管美国国立卫生研究院为初步基础研究做出了重大贡献,但DARPA认识到能够快速扩展和制造治疗疗法的技术差距,促使该机构启动自动诊断以实现预防和治疗方法(Adept),以开发技术以响应技术来响应技术以响应技术来响应技术以做出反应传染病威胁。通过Adept,DARPA在2011年通过2500万美元研究和开发其Messenger RNA Therapeutics平台。九年后,Moderna成为继Pfizer-Biontech接收的第二家公司Emergency Use Authorizationfor its COVID-19 vaccine.

Another example is DARPA’s role in开发互联网as we know it, which was not originally about realizing the unprecedented concept of a ubiquitous, global communications network. What began as researching technologies for interlinking packet networks led to the development of ARPANET, a pioneering network for sharing information among geographically separated computers. DARPA then contracted BBN Technologies to build the first routers before becoming operational in 1969. This research laid the foundation for the internet. The commercial sector has since adopted ARPANET’s groundbreaking results and used them to revolutionize communication and information sharing across the globe.

Wireframe Refinement and Iteration

To guide program directors through successful program development, George H. Heilmeier, who served as the director of DARPA from 1975 to 1977, used to require that all PDs answer the following questions, known as theHeilmeier Catechism,作为他们为新计划的推销的一部分。这些问题应用于完善线框并设想该程序的外观。特别是,线框改进应在扩展到其余问题之前检查前三个问题。

除了Heilmeier教义问答,一系列的屁股essments and lines of questioning should be completed to pressure test and iterate once the wireframe has been drafted. This refinement process is not one-size-fits-all but consistently grounded in research, discussions with experts, and constant questioning to ensure program fit. The objective is to thoroughly analyze whether the problem we are seeking to solve is the right one and whether the full space of opportunities around that problem is ripe for ARPA intervention.

考虑一下确定线框是否可以是程序的一种方法是问:“这是线框科学还是科幻小说?”换句话说,提议的技术解决方案是否适合ARPA使其成为现实?技术成熟度频谱中间有一个相对较广的范围,这可能是一个ARPA程序,但是该频谱的极端目的是不合适的,因此这些线框将需要进一步的迭代或拒绝。在频谱的最左端将是基础研究,只能产生发表的论文或可能是原型。在另一个极端情况下,已经开发了一项技术,以至于只需要全面实施。介于两者之间的所有内容都适用于ARPA计划主题区域。

Once a high-impact program has been designed, the next step is to rigorously pressure test and develop a program until it resembles an executable ARPA program.

Applying ARPA Frameworks to Transportation Infrastructure Challenges

通过使用此框架,可以评估运输基础架构中的任何问题或机会,以作为ARPA级别的想法。专家和利益相关者的想法生成对于创建ARPA-I程序的有效投资组合至关重要,因此Idea Generator必须使用此框架和一组定义的焦点领域来开发有希望的计划线框。ARPA-I的初始焦点领域包括安全性,气候和弹性以及数字化,并具有公平性和可访问性,作为每个焦点区域内的基本考虑。

我可以解决数百个潜在的主题领域。下面的两个线框代表了早期计划思想的示例,这些示例将通过程序设计迭代周期从进一步的压力测试中受益。

Note: The following wireframes are samples intended to illustrate ARPA ideation and the wireframing process, and do not represent potential research programs or topics under consideration by the U.S. Department of Transportation.

Next-Generation Resilient Infrastructure Management

A Digital Inventory of Physical Infrastructure and Its Uses

线框开发Next Steps

在初始的线框开发之后,需要进一步探索以测试一个想法,并确保将其发展为可行的计划,以实现“月经”的野心。线框作者在迭代时应考虑以下因素:

Wireframes are intended to be a summary communicative of a larger plan to follow. After further iteration and exploration of the factors outlined above, what was first just a raw program wireframe should develop into more detailed documents. These should include an incisive diagnosis of the problem and evidence and citations validating opportunities to solve it. Together, these components should lead to a plausible program objective as an outcome.

Conclusion

新授权和拨款的ARPA-I提供了一个曾经是一代的机会,可以应用一个模型,该模型已被证明成功地开发了其他部门的突破性创新,以应对运输基础设施面临的持续挑战。

将在ARPA-I网络中工作的个人和组织需要清楚地了解该行业的独特情况,挑战和机遇,以及如何运用这种情况以及独特的ARPA计划构想模型来建立高级影响未来的创新计划。这个社区的参与对于ARPA-I的成功至关重要,FAS正在寻找愿意通过发展大胆,创新的思想来应对这一挑战的大思想家。

为未来的更新注册事件,召开s, and other opportunities for you to work in support of ARPA-I programs and partners,点击这里

要提交高级研究计划的想法,点击这里